A POLL conducted recently shows President Robert Mugabe winning overwhelmingly in tomorrow's presidential election despite claims by the opposition Movement for Democratic Chnage that they will clinch the presidency.
A countrywide survey conducted by University of Zimbabwe lecturer, Dr Joseph Kurebwa, concluded that the ruling Zanu PF party will clinch a total of 41 Senate seats and 137 House of Assembly constituencies, ensuring a clean two-thirds majority in the next Parliament.
Kurebwa carried out similar surveys in the past and his projections have been correct. At the 2005 elections he projected that Zanu PF would win 72 seats and the MDC 45. In that election the ruling party went on to win 78 seats while the MDC got 41.
The survey concluded that MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai will win between 26 and 27 percent of the presidential vote with independent Simba Makoni will get 13-14 percent. Tsvangirai's win represents 13 Senate seats and 53 House of Assembly seats.
The Arthur Mutambara faction of the MDC would secure six seats in the Senate and 18 House of Assembly seats.
Little known independent presidential candidate, Langton Towungana, was likely to make up the numbers with 0,2 percent of the total vote count.
The projections for President Mugabe compare favourably to the roughly 52 percent he garnered in the last presidential election in 2002.
Kurebwa’s study assessed responses from 10 322 people drawn from all the wards in Zimbabwe.
Jonathan Moyo is also expected to win the Tsholotsho House of Assembly seat as an independent.
Kurebwa said the entry of Makoni in the presidential race has dealt a huge blow to Tsvangirai's share of the vote. "Makoni is pulling his numbers from Harare and Bulawayo, which are areas the MDC has concentrated its campaign resources in. At the same time, the ruling party also believes that it should regain these urban constituencies and hence there is a tussle there.
"Zanu-PF appears to have concentrated its resources in rural areas and managed to secure them. On the other hand, neither Makoni nor Tsvangirai has made any real attempts to market themselves there. So you have a situation where the areas the opposition are targeting being free for all while Zanu PF is left alone to take the rural vote," according to Kurebwa.
The survey also shows that a vast majority of the electorate is going to accept the election outcome.
"Almost unanimously the people we polled say they will respect the outcome of the elections even if their favoured parties and candidates lose. People do not want to go through the bitter experiences of past disputed elections."
Dr Kurebwa's conclusions are not isolated. Recently independent MP and ex-information minister also predicted that President Mugabe will win the presidential election.
David Coltart, a Bulawayo based human rights lawyer and opposition MDC (Mutambara) also predicted a Mugabe victory at the forthcoming elections.
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READER OPINIONS
George T. Tarkpor • georget-tarkpor@hotmail.com Subject: cross fingers - zimbabwe oppositons Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:41:21 • Let the Oppositon Parties in Zimbabwe cross their fingers until the end of Robert Mugabe, otherwise there is no win for any political party other than Robert Mugabe's; but let him remember that his generation will surely suffer the consequences in a very short future. Let it also be known to Mugabe that WHAT GOES UP MUST COME DOWN. A hint to a wise is quite sufficient.
samas • n/a Subject: n/a Sat, 29 Mar 2008 13:09:17 • I have just cast my vote and you know for who.
Hove .B • chery@yahoo.com Subject: vhotai zvakanaka Fri, 28 Mar 2008 19:54:53 • Dai hurumende iripo yaramba iripo isu vekudiaspora todii. Tosiya mabasa edu hedu here vamwe tanga tave kuita mari kuno. Aiwa ngaatonge hake. Tinodzingwa kuno nekuti takawanda iye kuno.
William Jackson • billjakes@hotmail.com Subject: DAY DREAMING Fri, 28 Mar 2008 15:31:53 • This survey is meant to make the old man feel comfortable because he is losing by a wider margin. Tsvangirai will win a majority vote followed by Mugabe then Simba and nobody is going to vote for Langton. Langton is going to be beaten by Spoilt Vote. Mugabe does not have 57% support in ZANU PF. How do you expect him to get it in Zimbabwe? We will withdraw that doctorate...
rumbie • n/a Subject: mugabe is gonna win Fri, 28 Mar 2008 12:54:49 • all zimbabweans are cowards.what do you expect.mugabe is going to win without even rigging the elections.we are just so passive.people have tried to help us but it wont work without our cooperation.makoni is zanu pf pliz dont vote for him.zvitori nani kuvhotera mugabe kana usingade tsvangison.
Ngotman • ngotiman@yahoo.co.uk Subject: who is kurewha Fri, 28 Mar 2008 08:34:35 • Please do not listen to this stupid Kurehwa. We all know that he is a ZANU PF guy. He did that in 2002 in which Matibili stole the election. To hell with Kurehwa. MDC ndizvo, come after elections, Mugabe kumusha.
Moses Matoto • mmatoto@gmail.com Subject: Kurebwa is day dreaming Fri, 28 Mar 2008 07:44:09 • Why should we listen to a well-known ZANU-PF propangandist? What survey? Where was it held? Like Jonathan Moyo, these are some of the propanganda machines who, sooner or later, are eaten away by the same ZANU-PF. Zimbabwe is for the people, not Mugabe and his cronies alone!
Steve Chicco • schicco@hotmail.com Subject: Mugabe winning???? Fri, 28 Mar 2008 06:45:37 • I know Kurebwa is Zanu PF. I heard him speak many times. All other surveys show Mugabe loosing, so why is his survey bringing out these miracle results? People should not be hoodwinked by the Kurebwa kind of surveys. This is a grand plan to authenticate a rigged result. His past correct projections are great testimony to the fact that he was told which figures to publish because everyone knows about the gerrymandering that happened in the past elections. Again this is a grand plan to prepare everyone’s mind for a Mugabe “win”. At the same time giving credence to his “wining” in the eyes of observers and international community.
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