Will Makoni end up with egg in the face?

SO when exactly did Simba Makoni, one of the Wise Men From The East, as Magaisa would say, decide that he wanted to run for President?

Was it before or after Mandaza published the supposed-to-be-damaging book by reclusive Edgar Tekere? Or was it after the supposed ‘party-to-destroy-Zanu-PF-from-within’ was founded?

I guess these are merely rhetoric questions as any answer will not tell a different story about Makoni than we already know.

Don’t you just get suspicious when someone announces their candidacy for President and then keeps the rest of the ‘gang’ a secret? Is it because they are Zanu PF members or simply because they are not yet ready to come out in the open? Either way, why would they shun the publicity? Some grandiose strategy perchance?!

It’s interesting that Makoni has ‘seen the light’ after twenty-seven years of service to the government of President Mugabe.

In the last ten years, according to Makoni, things got so worse that he had to leave the ruling party. But before he leaves, he attempts to contest the Makoni seat, as a last attempt at political leadership. After that proves impossible, he then remembers that at the last Congress he was robbed of the opportunity to run for Zanu PF leadership. He, therefore, decides to run for Presidency as an independent candidate, but still retain his loyalty and allegiance to the Zanu PF party.

That does not sound like a Wise Man From The East. Rather, it smells opportunism.

Political orientation

The East is where the sun rises from ─ ‘The Orient.’ So, I suppose, when you are from there you have the best ‘Orientation’. Yet the latest move by Makoni doesn’t show serious political orientation or calculation.

As if announcing his Presidential ambition was not confusing and shocking enough; he decides not to reveal whether he would form a political party or not; or who he would form it with, if he did. He lets the rumour mill spin.

The worst case scenario for Makoni is if the press rumour mill runs so fast that it destroys his strategy; like it did last month when he chickened out after The Zimbabwe Guardian revelations.

This time it will be his ‘secret society’ that might chicken out and he will be left with only “A Few Good Men.”

The threats of the War Veterans cannot be ignored at this juncture. They're still a formidable force.

Any member of Zanu PF right now who was thinking about joining Makoni could be developing ‘cold feet.’ If they were not, they would have pledged their allegiance at the onset. Why wait? Nomination dates, and the elections are just around the corner.

If Makoni so loved Zanu PF and its ideology, that he gave half his only life; why did he leave the party when he did, or at least contest from within? This is reminiscent of the MDC split; where a faction breaks away and retains the identity of the original party its splitting from, much to the detriment of the original form.

Judging from how easily the news spread that Makoni was going to form a party; the identities of Makoni’s ‘secret society’ will be easy to figure out.

We suspect, however, that there are some dubious characters who could deal a death blow to the Makoni political project if they are named now. Or otherwise they're Zanu PF members who want to see if they are going to get a nomination first and if not, then oppose the original party.

And if they lose a nomination; why would they join a political party that is not going to field candidates? What would make them believe that Simba will win the election and include them in his future government? What if he loses? And if they are business-people, they could be worried about loss of their assets, targeting, etc. if Mugabe wins. Because of these reasons, they could retreat into their comfort zones.

The extension of the nomination date is significant in that it shows the ruling party re-strategising and re-configuring. This re-configuration alters Makoni’s plan. Zanu PF will aim to put him on the defensive as they did with the MDC, until they destroy his project and 'its people'.

Wide consultation with Zanu PF party members by Makoni

If it’s true that Makoni has consulted widely with Zanu PF, Makoni had better be careful.

Which Zanu PF members has he consulted with? The ones contesting primary elections right now? The ones sending their CVs for consideration?

If they are not contesting, then what are the chances of unseating a government with MPs? Makoni has dismissed a possible alliance with Tsvangirai ─ who at the minute commands more respect than he does, at the grassroots at least.

Tsvangirai also has MPs in ‘safe constituencies.’ Is Simba going to contest these constituencies with his group? His group will certainly miss the deadline… Or lose the seats. Or contest and lose.

Simba will then have to wait until the next general election; unless he tries to use force, to effect change.

President Mugabe has just come back from the AU meeting and a lot will be happening in the next few days.

How secretive can the Makoni project be? We know how virally information spreads in this day and age. And besides you only need a few quid to have even the richest guy in Zimbabwe to spill the beans.

So Makoni beware! The project might turn out to be the biggest joke of the year.

If "someone in Zanu PF" knows about it, I'm sure someone would just say something. It’s just impossible to keep it secret. Zvinovaremera. Believe me.

Right now Mugabe, being the political tactician that he is, is tirelessly whipping his crew. He will almost certainly try to contain intra-party dissent before it splits the party.

You do not shock a government-in-power in stages. You simply ‘shock-and-awe’. If you delay, you lose. Governments in power have the capacity and means to curtail dissent. A strong and complicated patronage system is one such means used to appease elements that could be thinking otherwise.

It would be preposterous to suppose that Makoni could shock the Zanu PF system twice in a month. He shocked it yesterday.

Zanu PF right now is tirelessly re-strategizing and putting safeguards and the propaganda machinery in place; while Makoni is busy consolidating his new structures.

Think about it. What shock has Zanu PF not gone through in the past 10 years, or since it was founded in 1963? Losing a general election. But Simba will not be able to field in candidates to challenge the MDC and Zanu PF. He could garner some votes at the Presidential election, but not enough to defeat Mugabe.

Zanu PF knows more about political and economic misfortunes; from actual affairs to alleged affairs; to potentially alleged affairs, than any other party in Zimbabwe. I just don't see how a "Big" move by Makoni could ever be kept secret for an hour, let alone for the next week or so.

So the Wise Man From The East should wary the resilience of a party that has seen a lot; from murders, assassinations, betrayal, etc. and has fought evil racial systems in the past, and could still fight more in future.

Yet, this could also be a watershed for Zimbabwe and Makoni could prevail.

But, judging from the misfortunes of the erstwhile Wise Men From The East, he better take heed.

Unless he works with other forces that took the original initiative (the MDC, NCA, WOZA, MOZA, and various progressives), he could retreat to the 'East' with egg in the face.