DEAR EDITOR—The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) blitzkrieg which sought to change the leadership of Zanu PF overnight—even before the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission made the formal announcement—has crumbled and will continue to crumble in our very eyes.
Whoever told, or advised Tendai Biti, the MDC-T Secretary General, to make that historic announcement must have grossly miscalculated the extent of the Zimbabwean problem and the power of the Zanu PF party machinery.
Biti said: “Morgan Richard Tsvangirai is the next President of the Republic of Zimbabwe.” He added: "President Morgan Richard Tsvangirai has won the election and we are waiting for the official announcement by ZEC," said Biti on 2nd April 2008.
Some of us watched with pure amazement; but days went by and the new President did not get into State House. The blitz suffered a slow deflation process which culminated in the situation where we are today.
As the MDC-T blitzkrieg gathered momentum, the Zanu PF party was having a political holiday that helped them to focus full time on exactly what was happening.
The jagged-sounding German term, literally meaning “lightening war,” denotes a devastating type of military attack—an ‘attack’ which the MDC-T attempted on the Zanu PF party. The idea was for Zanu PF to wake up having lost power and conceding defeat; fast!
For the MDC-T this was meant to alert the world that ‘they might be rigged’ and also to shock the Zanu PF party machinery. At least one of these strategies worked—the world was alerted, but the world was skeptical of the authenticity of those results, especially coming so soon after the election, from a contesting party. And the margin of error arguments by Biti tied a Gordian knot the MDC has never managed to entangle.
What was interesting was the number of people who were quick to run to Morgan Tsvangirai—after all “Morgan Richard Tsvangirai [was] the next President of the Republic of Zimbabwe.” Those who hated him became overnight fans, ‘he was winning’. Even Mutambara changed his attitude towards this one time ‘intellectual midget,’ and abandoned the ‘intellectual giant,’ Simba Makoni at the ‘Eleventh Hour’.
Many hibernating ‘small fish’ politicians and political commentators in the Diaspora could be heard mumbling; and the started writing ‘Opinion Pieces’ in support of Morgan in the hope that they would be recognised. Some of them had asked Morgan to ‘make the ultimate sacrifice’ and join up with Makoni because he was not up to the job. Funny supporters of the MDC-T!
The MDC-T did not bargain for the consequences. The ever-skeptical and business-oriented international media focussed on the new ‘President’. By last night (Saturday, 10 May 2008) the MDC-T party had had at least 26 press conferences and a multitude of statements—conflicting statements.
As it dawned on them media that the MDC-T train was derailing, Biti and Tsvangirai consulted their crystal balls; which told them to ‘run away’ from home. Vanga vanyangira yaona.
The best way—and this is the MDC psyche—was to discredit the whole electoral process; so that people do not focus on the blitzkrieg. So it started with a call on the ever-wobbly Mwanawasa to call an Extra-Ordinary Summit, which President Mugabe snubbed. There was no need for it, as evidenced by its outcome—an endorsement of President Thabo Mbeki as chief negotiator. We saw the sulky Morgan leave prematurely—at least four hours before.
Then came the ‘tiny little dot’ Gordon Brown; who felt that “no-one believes that President Mugabe won that election.” But who was he speaking for? He forgot about the 10p tax that was causing him problems at home and the outcry from his backbenchers, and concentrated on Morgan’s woes—how tragic! He called on the United Nations Security Council to up-the-ante as the blitz had failed to deliver for the MDC-T. That was another mistake. Brown did not want to take over the Zimbabwean issue when the UK took over the Presidency of the Council the following week (last week). It’s too much of a hot-potato, after all they had colonised that same country; and he was worried what else Mugabe would call him—a ‘teeny weenie dot,’ perhaps.
The real blitz was on its way—the blitz by David Cameron’s Conservative government. This blitz, unlike the MDC-T blitz, did resemble the Germans’ one in World War Two and was a tactic based on speed and surprise. By speed and surprise Cameron’s Conservatives won local council elections and embarrassed Brown. Like how the British had been pushed behind at Dunkirk, Brown was pushed to the lowest political rung in British politics and MDC-T and Zimbabwean politics were relegated to the lowest rung of British, especially Labour, political priorities.
So MDC-T blitz suffered another blow. In the meantime Zimbabwe Electoral Commission leader George Chiweshe—who had repeatedly asked for MDC-T tallies—got fed up of waiting for a deflated party to make its next move and made the official announcement.
Tsvangirai, friendless, looked elsewhere, but without Britain taking centre stage, no-one wanted the hot potato in their hands. Even Jendayi Frazer who had made an all-too-unncessary ‘hunting expedition’ was nowhere to be found. She was, probably waiting for Brown’s support on this; but Brown who looked set to be on the exit; could not be bothered by Tsvangirai, at least for now. This hot potato had severe implications on his electability. This hot potato called Zimbabwe, has serious consequences on Labour’s immigration policy; a policy that could easily threaten his leadership. Nicolas Sarkozy, the French Premier, had warned Brown on the dangers of going it alone on immigration; but Brown didn’t listen.
Under pressure, Kaunda stings Brown further, and completely deflates him and simultaneously deflates Tsvangirai, Mwanawasa and the new-kid-on-the-block, Ian Khama.
The only way out was for Tsvangirai to ‘go back home’. After all everyone had to get on with their own programme.
Mwanawasa is busy with Chiluba’s trial and a new Constitution back home, Khama is consolidating structures to run for President next year (to get the people’s mandate this time), Bush is on his way out, so he has to focus on sterner stuff, the UN Security Council is focused on hot spots, and Brown is still in political intensive care.
Tsvangirai and the MDC-T party now have gone full circle. The enormity of the situation they are dealing with dawns on them. The ‘weak Sadc players’ they courted could only massage Tsvangirai’s ego; with no tangible benefits. So the MDC-T consults this time with civil society—Zimbabwean civil society—something they should have done in the first place. Talk about reverse thinking.
The last we here is that the ‘prodigal son’ is making the ‘Great Trek,’ but before he does that, the accident-prone MDC-T leader makes one final mistake—he courts Mugabe’s long-time ally, Angola’s Jose Eduardo dos Santos—and asks him to send a peacekeeping mission to Zimbabwe.
This is too much for one country, honestly! Can you imagine how Zimbabwe would have been like if all MDC demands had been met: viz, UN Security Council sanctions would be biting, Zambia and Botswana would have stopped trade completely with the country, USA would be in Botswana with its arsenal pointing at Zimbabwe and Sadc and AU peacekeepers would be roaming the streets of Harare and our rural areas. Can you imagine that? Zimbabwe would be more than a colony today; but would be another Baghdad waiting to be shocked and awed.
But thanks to regional friends and sober-thinking politicians like President Thabo Mbeki who know that sustained solutions are those that are home-grown. The wobbly world will abandon you at the last minute.
The last we heard from Morgan Tsvangirai was when he was in Luanda, enjoying diplomatic niceties as usual, with a Mugabe ally this time, dos Santos. The MDC-T wheel has gone full circle and Tsvangirai finally breathes his last political breadth and says to President dos Santos, “Robert Mugabe is the father of the nation.” Barely a month ago, at Johannesburg's Lanseria Airport, and at his 22nd press conference, Tsvangirai had said, "Old man, go and have an honourable exit." So this is how Tsvangirai speaks to a ‘father of the nation’?
Does Tsvangirai expect us to believe this statement as altruistic or—like all his other statements—this will be reversed at the opportune time? Time is amazing, considering what it did to the MDC-T.
CLIVE • cliveone@hotmail.com Subject: Critics still dont get it Tue, 13 May 2008 02:18:50 • You can win votes through an electoral process but that does necessarily mean that you will win power to govern. This kind of thinking and you dare to criticise Tsvangirayi. Whats the point of elections then if the other party wont give up power. Anyway since this is how you like to think, my question is where would Mugabe be without the backing of the military and police? People power would have saw to it that he quit. I'm sorry but I'm not about to listen to the same critics who said Mugabe would fare better than Tsvangirayi in the March 29 elections and yet this never was the case. Tsvangirayi has the people's support whilst Mugabe has the support of the military and police. Thats what sets them apart at this point, not strategy. And people power will eventually prevail, even if you refuse to accept this - time will tell.
n/a • n/a Subject: n/a Mon, 12 May 2008 21:55:23 • Excellent article Philip. I don't think though that the MDC strategy was ever killed. MDC-T has never had a strategy. The guys have no clue where they are going. They are just adrift on a lost ship. And that ship will sink unless they come to their senses. With Brown's dismal loss in the UK, they are struggling to identify who might tell them what to do next.
Richard • omondi007@yahoo.com Subject: Spot on Mon, 12 May 2008 10:01:51 • Your opinion piece is spot on. However the premise of your observation seems to be predicated on the assumption that they actually had a strategy all along. I think that they did not have a strategy at all! Otherwise how can you explain Biti announcing to the world that Morgan Richard Tsvangirai is the next President without appreciating the negative political implications of such announcement. Did he think that an announcement by him will be endorsed by the world and therefore force Mugabe out? Did he think that by saying Mugabe should be investigated by the ICC will soften the grip of the Joint Operations Command over power? What naivety? MDC-T party still do not understand the difference between the electoral process and politics. You can win votes through an electoral process but that does necessarily mean that you will win power to govern. Assumption of power involves much more than drawing large crowds at rallies and winning votes. It requires sober, skillful political minds that understand who is holding the power and how to convince those people to give you that power. These guys don't seem to understand this.
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