MDC –T facing political suicide

SOME things in life are irresistible. I have been missing in action for some time and only last week I had assured the Editor that I would be back on this forum end of October during which time I would have finished my present “other commitments”.  

But with the drama unfolding in Zimbabwe’s politics, I could not resist saying something.

Some time ago I posed a question on whether Morgan Tsvangirai (the Prime Minister designate), would survive a leadership coup by Dr Simba Makoni. We now know he did, but the threat is growing bigger as each day passes. Dr Simba Makoni’s shadow is still hovering within uncomfortable distance. Elsewhere he is quoted as saying the constitution of his new party is ready, but the launch has been deliberately delayed.

The delay is aimed at striking at the right time just the same way he attempted to cause a shock-and-awe tactic just before the presidential elections by announcing his candidacy at the last minute. It did not work then, but this time it looks well-calculated. The delay of the launch has everything to do with the power-sharing agreement.

MDC-T friends and funders today do not trust Tsvangirai, but they loved the old trade unionist who had the power to lead mass uprisings and cause havoc on the streets of Zimbabwe and thereby effect regime change in that manner.

The real Tsvangirai was never destined to be President of Zimbabwe. In fact he was supposed to be the vehicle in which the change should come through and thereafter hand over to someone else in the mould of Dr Makoni.

Those who care to read carefully what the “international community” wanted to happen in Zimbabwe would have noticed the phrases like “transitional government” led by Tsvangirai after which elections supervised by “international observers” read Western observers would be carried out in Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai was not going to “win” that round – not because he would not have the popular vote – it was just ‘unwinnable’, the same way Al Gore lost to George W. Bush. It is just the way politics is.

Having failed to lead mass uprisings – polite overtures were made to Tsvangirai to pass the baton to Dr Makoni who probably would have used a different strategy to change the government in Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai snubbed the offer and even went on to make some uncomfortable allegations on how Dr Makoni was being propped up by Western diplomats. Since he made that snub, Tsvangirai lost the trust of most of his friends and some of them now wish to see his back.

Those who were behind Dr Makoni’s presidential bid had read the political temperatures correctly. They were convinced that Tsvangirai was not able to win the presidential vote through a ballot and that some form of compromise through negotiation was inevitable. They were right.  Makoni having served in the government for half his life was most suitable for this role, they reasoned.

Common sense failed to prevail in MDC-T leadership. They did not see the bigger picture and failed dismally to conduct or to review their PEST analysis. Neither did they review their SWOT analysis.  

They did not realize the opportunity presented to them in the mould of Dr Makoni and they also failed to notice their weaknesses in terms of dealing with Zanu PF at the negotiation table. They became too consumed in the type of offices they would occupy, although they did not know how to get to the offices in the first place.

You cannot agree to race in rough unknown terrain, with a competitor who is familiar with the route and expect to win it and you cannot just find yourself on the starting line without researching more about the type of game your competitor plays – its strengths and weaknesses.

Zanu PF has been involved in negotiations from the Lancaster House to the 1987 Unity Accord and the party itself has been in existence for a much longer period than MDC-T.  

Zanu PF knew their competitor very well, the pressure points they could press to weaken its performance at the negotiation table and they managed to outclass their opponent by a wide margin.

How can the MDC-T justify withdrawing from the Agreement which they signed and defended? Even MDC-T spokesman Nelson Chamisa appeared on Al Jazeera TV channel the day after the official signing ceremony seemingly satisfied with the agreement. He even went further to explain that the deal was not about what MDC-T or Zanu PF got, but that the deal enabled the country to move forward. What has changed then?

If Morgan Tsvangirai and his entire leadership had done their research, they would have made some painful decisions in entering into a ‘gentlemen’s agreement’ with Simba Makoni leading the entire MDC (MDC-M included). Entering into negotiation in such an arrangement would have presented Zanu PF with numerous headaches. Several folks behind Simba Makoni know Zanu PF very well and would have known their pressure points. Zanu PF would have compromised in several areas, well before the signing of the Agreement.

MDC-T is now cornered. They signed the Agreement and suddenly realized that they got what was offered to them not what they wanted, and cannot walk away from it without committing political suicide. It will reflect badly on the competence of the entire leadership in the eyes of their friends if they walked away now.

The only reasonable option is to stay put in the Agreement and try to wriggle their way from within, but not without fatal consequences.  

Either way, Dr Makoni is waiting for that very opportunity when he would start singing (‘A Moment Like This – Some people wait for a lifetime’) and officially launch his party as the new opposition in Zimbabwe.

I would not want to be in Tsvangirai’s shoes at the moment. He cannot do any good. British Foreign Secretary, David Miliband issued a statement saying the agreement contained “a lot of Zanu PF rubbish”. It is either the MDC-T leadership is naïve and ignorant of their donors’ expectations with regards to Land Reform legislation and the Indigenization Act, or they now share the same belief with Zanu PF that the two pieces of legislation are justified and will not be reversed.

Which way will Morgan Tsvangirai go? Stay in the agreement and defend his judgment? Perhaps he should quote Thabo Mbeki’s  famous “I am an African” jibe and endeavour to convince his donors that he made the right decision and they must accept it in that form. Or will he chicken out of the Agreement with uncertainty hanging round his future political career with Simba Makoni playing the irresistible beautiful mistress role to the opposition leader title?

Welcome to Zimbabwe’s political theatre – fun, sensational, hair-raising but on the doorstep of that theatre, ordinary Zimbabweans languish in dire poverty. Never mind that the movie is made in their name!

Nancy Nyamhunga
Leicester, UK