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Tsvangirai now in a political cul-de-sac
Wed, 10 Dec 2008 09:10:00 +0000
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A cul-de-sac has a dead end. That seems to be the road the MDC-T leader, Morgan Tsvangirai is travelling as he becomes increasingly isolated from the rest of the African leadership; except obviously Prime Minister of Kenya Raila Odinga and Botswana President, Seretse Khama Ian Khama.
The turning point for the MDC-T leader was the refusal by South Africa to grant him exit with an expired Emergency Travel Document. Tsvangirai, in violation of South African laws, border-jumped into Botswana, where he is now alleged to be an asylum seeker.
A letter written by the Sadc-appointed Facilitator in the power-sharing talks, former South African President, Thabo Mbeki, marked the lowest point in the relationship between Tsvangirai and the African leadership, especially Sadc.
Describing a decision of the region as a “nullity” smacked of political immaturity by the MDC-T party and lack of tact – a clear case of shooting oneself in the foot.
In characteristic, think-after-the-action fashion of the MDC-T party, they signed off a draft Constitutional Amendment No. 19 Bill exactly 48 hours after describing the Sadc decision as a nullity and having vowed that the process was over. “There are still outstanding issues,” said the MDC-T spokesman, Nelson Chamisa, soon after the signing ceremony in SA.
Ignoring calls by Sadc, AU, ‘The Elders’, China and every other country besides Britain, U.S., Belgium, Botswana and Raila Odinga’s fraction of Kenya, will not do the MDC-T leadership any good.
News organisations say, “International calls have increased for President Mugabe to step down.” Surely, Brown, Bush, Rice, Sarkozy, Skelemani, Odinga, Khama, Tutu, Sentamu cannot be considered to be international community. The world is much bigger than that.
Global power has shifted, so what does the MDC-T leader have to gain from such calls, abandoning Zimbabwe and those supporters who voted for him on March 29? The UN Security Council failed to discuss Zimbabwe earlier this year. It will not discuss Zimbabwe anytime soon and the sooner the MDC-T party realises that, the better for everybody.
Former SA President Thabo Mbeki was spot on when he reminded the MDC-T leader that he had nothing to gain from his grandstanding in the West, except acres of media space. At the end of the day he would have to return to Zimbabwe to face his vowed “enemies”.
Sooner of later, Tsvangirai will have to reverse out of the cul-de-sac. Reversing out of that cul-de-sac will present many challenges as he will find issues exactly were he left them. Very few leaders on the continent will be willing to entertain him then and the ball game will be different.
In fact, Tsvangirai will find himself significantly behind the pace of events in Harare and will have to take into account other new conditions that will affect the negotiations.
Surely, hobnobbing with E.U. leaders as they impose new sanctions on Zimbabwe is politically suicidal, perhaps more suicidal than boycotting the June 27 run-off presidential election.
Because his political career is associated with stripping Zimbabwe of its autonomy, and denigration of African diplomacy, Tsvangirai will find out that power resides in many places when he becomes PM.
Calls for military action against Zimbabwe by Tsvangirai’s associates do not improve chances of a peaceful, viable solution in Zimbabwe. Tsvangirai cannot blame Zanu PF for violence and encourage his friends to military action in Zimbabwe. This sounds like a case of the victim becoming the aggressor.
Tsvangirai must understand the serious consequences of unleashing a war in Zimbabwe supported by erstwhile colonizers. His relationship with the E.U. and the likes of Odinga and Khama might guarantee a slow burn in Harare, but it will not improve, but rather hurt Zimbabwe's poor people. It will, in fact reinforce his political isolation by the region.
All MDC-T supporters and their leadership must be made to understand that a political settlement (rather than a military one) is ultimately in the best interest of the country.
The complications of military engagement and the difficulty of using military presence or force to achieve political goals cannot be over-emphasized.
The MDC-T party is cornering itself, by abandoning the discussions and running away from the country to Never Never Land.
For the ideologically committed followers of the MDC-T party, those who are waiting in the wings to have a go at leadership, their only option is to adopt the wait-and-see approach. ‘Kutonga’ becomes a virtual reality simulated from the top.
philipmurombedzi@yahoo.com
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ARTICLE ATTACHMENTS
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Wedzerai Mapeni • joytolast@yahoo.co.uk
Subject: cul-de sac
Mon, 15 Dec 2008 00:38:38 • Africa is Europe's garden, so one Wesetrn newspaper said, and an increase in or any sign of Chinese or other power block influence will be strongly resisted. Geopolitical interestes dictate this. Sadly African leaders everywhere have proven that African people are merely pests in the garden as they battle for control over the said garden on behalf of masters abroad. Mugabe's alliance or closeness with China makes the British colonial master rather unease, and they would rather have control through MDC-T. MDC-T invited sanctions, encouraged and praised them in their bid for power but only met with failure, hence the call for military intervention. Both sides do not care about the people of Zimbabwe, and will benefit from more deaths. Mutasa once said that there are too many people anyway. Culling the population by starvation, disease and war would make governing easier for all the troglodytes on both sides of the political divide.
N/A • N/A
Subject: LEAKED REPORT
Sun, 14 Dec 2008 16:11:52 • Does anyone have a copy of the leaked report on America's reconstruction efforts in Iraq, and give a copy to Biti and Mr Tsvangirai? Also post a link to where we can find its so that people who parrot intervention politics can understand what it means.
We are better off with our cholera as if we practice hygiene, cholera may passover. But with a war, survival becomes slim.
We don't need them wars.
MrK • bannie2020@hotmail.com
Subject: People
Thu, 11 Dec 2008 23:06:31 • People are dying in apocalyptic numbers in Zimbabwe and they need radical solutions not facile manouverings that pander to the intellectual whims of a callous few.
People are not dying in 'apocalyptic numbers'. The death toll from cholera is as nothing compared to the death toll that will follow a foreign invasion.
In the attack on Panama, 1,000 people died just in Panama City alone. And that was just from the invasion. If the MDC comes to power to British force of guns, they will be resisted by ZANU-PF. If they roll back land reform, the over 300,000 people who benefited are not going to wait quietly to be thrown off their land and back on their reservations and there will be civil war.
The argument that foreign invasion will somehow magically solve Zimbabwe's problems is unworthy of anyone aspiring to high office in the country.
Fortunately, no one in the West is waiting for another military adventure, not after the debacle of Iraq. Which should be an object lesson for anyone.
If you're really serious about the situation in Zimbabwe, including the cholera outbreak, help get sanctions lifted. Unless of course sanctions and regime change are more important to you than people's lives.
NA. • NA
Subject: WHY, WHAT AND WHEREFORE NOW....
Thu, 11 Dec 2008 18:00:30 • Exactly what is MT running from that he prefers to border jump our neighbours and put them in a compromising sitation?
why must he leave Zimbabwe?
for WHAT?
its all part of his scam.
Wise Man • N/A
Subject: N/a
Thu, 11 Dec 2008 04:21:59 • Agreeing that anyone is entitled to his opinion, I think the stage we have now reached is for anti-MDC and anti-Tsvangirai opinions like this to end by suggesting a way forward, which appears obvious in this case. Why would you want to be in an inclusive government with a puppet? Someone who called for sanctions, etc. The truth of the matter is that the talks have failed, and it is time those who claim to have won the elections form their own government and move on.
The MDC is not deaf or blind to realise that there is nothing for them in this deal. Day and night they are being insulted by nobodies in government, terror is continuing unabated, and their genuine concerns about issues to be addressed before the unity government are being ignored. Not to mention the passport issue. So ladies and gentlemen, it is obvious that the MDC does not want to be part of this useless government. And you all say that they are not important. So what are we waiting for? You have your losers whom you are calling Ministers, so why not move on?
Faraway • n/a
Subject: Why are people so deaf and blind
Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:42:11 • It seems that some people are deaf and blind when it comes to a true unity government. There is nothing wrong with the MDC demanding and equal share. As you can see in all the media outlets, the abductions, terrorising of MDC supporters continues unabated. A little protection from this nonsense would go a long way to having some sort of unity government, as farcical as it would be. We all know that MDC leaders would mysteriously disappear, as they have been over the years.
Motormouth! • n/a
Subject: n/a
Wed, 10 Dec 2008 20:15:39 • Tsvangirai in a political cul-de-sac? He should stay there!
n/a • n/a
Subject: MDC-T
Wed, 10 Dec 2008 18:33:22 • Jack -The biggest problem we have in Zimbabwe is Tsvangirai and his MDC-T party. They called for the sanctions that have devastated our economy and made milions of us destitute. Tsvangirai and MDC-T are the problem and not the solution. Tsvangirai and his entourage are busy gallavanting to Western capitals whilst there are pressing issues in Zimbabwe. Jack, where is the top leadership of MDC-T whilst the country is facing a crisis? Out of the country is the answer. Make up your own mind.
n/a • n/a
Subject: Gestation Period Running Too Long
Wed, 10 Dec 2008 17:55:15 • The gestation period for the power sharing talks between prominent political powers in Zim is running entirely too long, having run well past the usual nine months. Such a calculated running time only allows for the development of unprepossessing intrusion of issues, e.g., military options!
Jack • jackm@yahoo.co.uk
Subject: N/A
Wed, 10 Dec 2008 14:18:06 • My problem with these types of analysis is their lack of concern about people. Politics, above all, is about people - their welfare and needs, not abstract theses and concepts. People are dying in apocalyptic numbers in Zimbabwe and they need radical solutions not facile manouverings that pander to the intellectual whims of a callous few. Mr Mbeki let South Africans down, and now he is letting Zimbabweans down. It is time Zimbabweans are rid of this dangerous pseudo-intellectual too.
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